Joe is Not a Dominant #1

First off I want to clarify that this post is not an attack on Joe Johnson. I love the guy. He chose to come to a brutally bad franchise, put the team on his back, and carried them back to the playoffs last year and a winning record this year. By no means a simple feat since the Hawks do not have another consistent scoring option. And no, Flip Murray jacking up shot after shot does not count.

However, I can tell you now that Joe will never carry a team to the finals and especially not to a championship carrying the majority of the load. Once again, this is not an insult. By my count there are only 6 guys in the NBA that can carry a team to a championship: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Paul, Howard (in a couple of years if not now), and Duncan. That's it. If you don't have one of those 6 guys, then you need to surround yourself with some good other talent. I think Joe could have been one of the league's all-time best #2 options in the right environment. I'm talking Pippin good. But we don't have a Jordan on our team, so the question remains where do the Hawks go from here?

The main thing the Hawks need to do if find a consistent #2 scoring option. Right now we don't have it. Bibby is a glorified jump shooter, he can't get open on his own when it counts. Josh's offensive game consists of putting his head down and recklessly charging the basket. Marvin has the potential, but he is too timid and not developed enough in the paint. Horford has the chance as well, but his post game needs to be refined. Right now he has one post move, the baby hook from the left block.

So the question remains, how do we get a #2 scoring option? Do we continue to hope our young guys develop into that option by accident and summer training (they sure as hell aren't getting it from Woody), or do we take a chance, deal some of our assets, and acquire a #2 scoring option like Cleveland did to get Mo Williams (who is like a younger Bibby)? We need to acquire that option if our young players can't develop within the next couple of years since Joe is just getting older, and next year is his last year. Do we try to trade Bibby's expiring contract this year? Do we wait until his salary comes off the books and try to sign a free agent? Do we try to pry Monta Ellis from the Warriors since they are allegedly upset with him?

More than likely there will be no moves this year as our GM lets the team and the fans taste a winning record before shaking things up. So these questions and more will have to wait until the offseason.

We Don't Believe You Anymore

So how many times can you say a thing before people simply stop believing you? Woodson has reached that point (some would argue a long time ago) concerning Joe Johnson and rest. The man is averaging 39.9 minutes per game, good for 1st in the league. And it's not like this is a new thing, he's been averaging around 40 minutes for the last 6 seasons. I don't care who you are, that is putting some miles on your knees and ankles. Factor in also that he is still the main offensive option for the Hawks, and you have some serious fatigue.

Let's take a look at some specific examples of abusing Joe on back-to-backs:
1/25 and 1/26: 43 and 44 minutes
1/19 and 1/20: 45 and 45 minutes
1/2 and 1/3: 45 and 39 minutes

And that's just this year. There's only 48 minutes in a game, how do you only give the man 6 minutes of rest combined in two games?!

So how then are we supposed to react when Sekou has this in his article on 1/27, "Woodson acknowledged that he has to do something to find Johnson some rest"? This is like the 10th time he's said or acknowledged that this year! He needs to sit down and watch nothing but Spurs tapes on how to manage your star's minutes. That and how to stop lying to people...

Why Not?

Daniel messaged me today (likely after reading Simmons most recent column) and the following conversation ensuded:

Daniel: you know what I would love?
me: a creamsicle?
Daniel: the Braves to sign Manny
me: i was thinking that same thing today

Aside from the creamsicle, we both agreed that signing Manny just made sense. The on-field reasons: We need a #4 hitter. He fits that perfectly. We need a right handed power hitter. He fits that perfectly. We need a left fielder. I won't say perfectly, but he is adequate there.

To along with that we have plenty of backups ready to fill in when Manny decides he needs a day or two off. Additionally, the rest of our defense is above average so we can make do with a sub-par LF.

The off field reasons: There isn't a ton of interest in him which should keep his price down (not cheap, but not $18 mil/year). He is actually fairly durable averaging 142 games over the past 14 years, never missing more than 45 games in a single season. He would stand a good chance of thriving under a laid back manager in Bobby Cox. Atlanta has a large latin community and is not too far from his home in Miami.

Additionally, he wouldn't have to be a leader and he could mentor some of our younger hitters like Escobar. Taking all this into account, wouldn't $40-45 million over 3 years get the job done. He would take pressure off of the rest of the offense and the lineup would look something like:

Kelly Johnson 2B Bats: Left
Yunel Escobar SS Bats: Right
Chipper Jones 3B Bats: Switch
Manny Ramirez LF Bats: Right
Brian McCann C Bats: Left
Casey Kotchman 1B Bats: Left
Jeff Francouer RF Bats: Right
Jordan Schafer CF Bats: Left
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So we'd have a good mix of lefties and righties and flexibility off the bench with Norton, Prado, Infante, Anderson, etc.

What's not to like?

Why So Quiet?

Well. Because nothing major has happened in the world of Atlanta sports. There has neither been great news nor has there been terrible news. Just a modicum of good and 'meh' news. Today we'll focus on the Braves

Good:
Braves get a trio of new starting pitching. Nothing glitzy but after the maddening past few years of 4 inning pitchers and $15 million disabled vets, the Braves sought more stability. Personally, I agree with and love this strategy. Is this a pitching staff that can win a championship? Doubtful. However, this IS a great rotation to help develop our young players. At the major league level we are going to tax our bullpen less, give our offense a more consistent chance to stay in games, and keep our not quite ready talent in the minors to develop. Compare that with the past few years where we have been forced to bring up unready players, blown out ligaments of half of our bullpen, and forced our offense to try to come back from big deficit after big deficit. Did we pay "too much for Lowe"? Probably, but in the long run that investment pays off with the development of our other players that we were able to rest, leave in the minors, etc.

Getting rid of Smoltz will help us. Look. I love Smoltz. My dad loves Smoltz and he lives 1000 miles away from Atlanta. I admire a man who can work so hard through injury and be confident despite being bald since age 20. But the ridiculous notion that we "owed" Smoltz something was asinine. He told the Braves he would wait on them and make sure his arm is ready before negotiating. Then he got antsy and other teams opened their wallets. The Braves took a hard look and basically said "we'd love to have you if you are healthy, here is a contact that will reward you if you are." And he wasn't happy with it so he bolted. To blame the Braves for being prudent and neglecting sentimentality is insane. If we had resigned Smoltz and he didn't pitch an inning, the same media would skewer us. I wish Smoltz the best of luck but worry the cold air is going to tighten his shoulder and we won't see him on the mound come fall. And then he'll be back in the booth in Atlanta where he belongs.

Not wasting money or assets on Dunn, Dye, assortment of terrible OF options. Again, if we were close to a championship I would say the Braves should take the risk and get that one more guy. But right now we have a boatload of ML ready Outfielders who, at the least, will play slightly worse than anyone we could attain at about 1/10th the price. Blanco, Schafer, Gorkys, Anderson all have proven in the minors that they are ready for a shot and the Braves ought to not waste their assets at trying to get a marginal improvement. Instead, let the 'kids' play and see what you have after they get a regular opportunity. At worst we have capable platoon players (which Bobby loves) and a deeper bench than most teams. At best one of them shakes out to be a slightly above average player and we haven't wasted any money or players to improve the team.

The Bad:

Francouer. I am hopeful that his better diet and workout regimen will lead to increased productivity. But the fact of the matter is that it is his head that is slow, not his swing. Further evidenced by his demand for $4 million in arbitration while his best friend and All Star catcher is making $3.5 million this year. Over and over we see players that can't handle the pressure and the notoriety of playing in their home town. It seems like Frenchy may be one of those players. Unless he shows some humility at some point and is willing to accept his weaknesses and work on them, he won't improve and we will be seeing him in a Royals or Pirates uniform. And I'm okay with that.

Long term players who think they are the front office. Chipper is a great great hitter and an underappreciated fielder. He is not, however, the GM. To hear his inane comments of how Smoltz was treated was an exercise in stupidity. Of course a player is going to miss a long time teammate but to act like the Braves did something "wrong" in this just makes Chipper look like a moron. The quotes might have well read "reached via satellite phone while hiding in bushes hunting deer with a bowie knife Chipper Jones replied to the Smoltz signing by saying 'well darn, now I don't know what's gunna happen to me. I wonder what it's like to track deer in the snow.'" Let the front office handle the roster, Chipper. I hate to say it, but they could all learn a lesson from Glavine in the fine art of "keeping your mouth shut when you aren't involved."

So overall, I give the offseason an "A" from the front office. I'm sure all 3 of you readers out there are thinking "AN A? HOW CAN YOU GIVE THIS AN A? NO PEAVY, NO AJ, NO CC, NO HITTER?" But the committment to building takes time and patience. So far we have given up very little (a defensively limited catcher about whom it had been written that he had a career as a DH) and ended up with a sturdy rotation. Knowing that your rotation is the key to your success as it makes your bullpen stronger, your defense look better, and puts less pressure on your offense is a sign that Wren is trying to right the ship. Not bending to the whining of fans and players alike and being smart with every dollar in his budget, leaving room for flexibility means the opportunity for changes down the road. All this has been done with an eye to the future. After being spoiled for 14 years in a row it is hard to be patient as a fan. But the Falcons have shown us what having a plan and working towards it can do.

Maybe not Braves in 09, but Braves in 11 could be the key.

Looking Back

Well the season is over, and I have finally come to grips with giving up a first down on 3rd and 16 with the game on the line. Now it's time for the fun part: looking back at my predictions at the beginning of the season and seeing how I did. I know you're excited, so here we go!

On offense, I believe the biggest question mark will not be Ryan, but rather our offensive line.
I believe, however, if they are able to make some holes for Turner and Norwood, and if they are able to keep Matt Ryan in one piece, then the Falcons offense could surprise some people.

Well I was right that Ryan wouldn't be that big of a question mark, but I was way off on the offensive line. They only allowed 17 sacks of Ryan in 17 games, and they paved the way for a total of 2,443 rushing yards including 1,699 from Turner.

I believe that Matt Ryan will have an average statistical year, but he will make leaps and bounds in becoming an NFL QB and, more importantly, he will further solidify his status as a leader of the offense. He's already got his receivers pointing at him after they catch scores.

Wow, pretty dead on with that. Ryan's stat line reads 265-434 for 3,440 yards, 61.1 completion percentage, 16 tds and 11 ints for a passer rating of 87.7. Nothing special for your average QB, but great for a rookie. Also I think it's pretty obvious Ryan is the unquestioned leader of the offense.

I believe that the combo of Turner and Norwood will gash defenses for close to 2,000 yards, and Turner especially will take a ton of pressure off of Ryan.

True, except for the fact that Turner and Norwood combined for OVER 2,000 yards for a total of 2,188 yards. Turner was especially able to let Ryan grow without too much pressure over the first few games of the season.

I believe that our receivers will continue to mature, led by Roddy White who will be noted more for his stats this year rather than his choice of uniform accessories.

True for Roddy White. He finished with 88 receptions, 1382 yards, a pro bowl selection, and, more importantly, got attention for his skill rather than his uniform. Jenkins started to round into shape, but still has plenty of work to do. Unfortunately Laurent Robinson was hurt most of the year. However, this is the first offseason where WR isn't a need position.

I believe that no one in our secondary could start for any other team.

Probably too harsh. Chris Houston improved a lot as the season went on, and I was a fan Foxworth. The promise Grimes showed in the offseason fizzled a bit, and I think Chevis Jackson shows promise. He at least knows how to go to house when he gets a pick. Erik Coleman was a surprise at safety and hopefully will continue to develop. On the other hand Milloy continues to slide. I love his leadership and his run support, but he's a bit of a liability in coverage. Rumors are flying that he might get cut in the offseason.

On that note, I believe that our secondary will give up a ton a big passing plays, but they will improve as the year goes on.

Off on that one. Forgot that Mike Smith loves to play the zone. So while teams could dink and dunk us, we didn't get burnt by the deep ball much.

I believe that we could get a good pass rush from DEs Anderson and Abraham if Abraham stays healthy for 16 games.

Well we got a good pass rush from Abraham. However when he's hurting or getting double-teamed, we didn't get much pass rush from anyone else. Takes Grady too long to get to the QB. Either Anderson has to realize his potential or we need to find some other solution.

I believe Abraham will get hurt.

Held up pretty well. Smith's plan to give him more plays off worked well and even Abraham bought into it, which is rare for a star player.

I believe our linebacking core is deep and talented, and that Boley and Brooking will be able to protect whichever middle linebacker plays between Taylor and Lofton.

Maybe not so much. Boley underperformed against the rush to the point that Coy Wire came in on first and second down. I love Brooking's leadership, but in terms of football ability he needs to play a smaller role or get cut. Lofton was great and looks to be a stalward in the middle for years to come.

I believe resigning Grady "Fat" Jackson (note: not his real nickname) was one of the smartest offseason moves for the Falcons.

Maybe not the smartest considering how well some of our other signings did this year, but Fat definitely plugged a big hole in the middle of our D-line. I would hate to be a QB getting sacked by him.

I believe that signing Jason Elam was another great move this offseason as he will win 2-3 games for a Falcons team that will grind out every game and every possession they have.

True. See picture above.

I believe the Eagles (if McNabb is healthy) and the Chargers are the only teams that scare me on the Falcons schedule.

I was more right than I thought considering the Eagles weren't that great when we faced them, and the Chargers took till week 14 to put everything together. I don't think anyone predicted, however, just how good the NFC south was, especially at home. (Damn you Saints for the one home loss within the division!)

I believe the Falcons will win 6 games.

Way off and couldn't be happier.

More Sweet Than Bitter

But trust me, I am a little bitter. A wonderful Falcons season was derailed in the playoffs by one man: Keith Brooking. As a veteran he has been known for his "sure tackling" and "awareness". That's basically what you say about a player when they are slow and aging. Going beyond Brooking's ENORMOUS mental lapse on the critical 3rd and 15 when he opted to run up to the underneath receiver instead of the deep receiver who sat down in the hole right at the first down marker. It was the quantity of missed tackles that did us in. Playing LB is all about getting to the ball carrier and bringing them down. The line creates seams for you to come through, the DBs cover the receivers downfield, the LBs are left to cover the middle and stop the ball. Brooking failed repeatedly. It shouldn't have been much of a suprise as we have seen him do this all season long. However, Arizona ran at him and watched him try his patented "grab the ballcarrier and let him take me an extra 5 yards." They also passed his way a lot to the TE exploiting his major weaknessl; coverage.

With an emerging team it seems like we no longer need his "veteran presence". I hope the Falcon's brass is smart enough to jettison him and his inflated salary in the offseason (where I'm sure he'll end up in NE--where white 35 year old LBs go to flourish). Ideally a LB like Maluaga or Laurinitis will be waiting for us in the draft. A man can dream.

Oh, and I hope Vince Carter breaks a nail and has to miss two months.